COVID-19-Associated Mortality among Kidney Transplant Recipients and Candidates in the United States.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had a profound effect on transplantation activity in the United States and globally. Several single-center reports suggest higher morbidity and mortality among candidates waitlisted for a kidney transplant and recipients of a kidney transplant. We aim to describe 2020 mortality patterns during the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States among kidney transplant candidates and recipients. DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS, & MEASUREMENTS: Using national registry data for waitlisted candidates and kidney transplant recipients collected through April 23, 2021, we report demographic and clinical factors associated with COVID-19-related mortality in 2020, other deaths in 2020, and deaths in 2019 among waitlisted candidates and transplant recipients. We quantify excess all-cause deaths among candidate and recipient populations in 2020 and deaths directly attributed to COVID-19 in relation to prepandemic mortality patterns in 2019 and 2018. RESULTS: Among deaths of patients who were waitlisted in 2020, 11% were attributed to COVID-19, and these candidates were more likely to be male, obese, and belong to a racial/ethnic minority group. Nearly one in six deaths (16%) among active transplant recipients in the United States in 2020 was attributed to COVID-19. Recipients who died of COVID-19 were younger, more likely to be obese, had lower educational attainment, and were more likely to belong to racial/ethnic minority groups than those who died of other causes in 2020 or 2019. We found higher overall mortality in 2020 among waitlisted candidates (24%) than among kidney transplant recipients (20%) compared with 2019. CONCLUSIONS: Our analysis demonstrates higher rates of mortality associated with COVID-19 among waitlisted candidates and kidney transplant recipients in the United States in 2020.

Decreased access to pediatric liver transplantation during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has affected all aspects of the US healthcare system, including liver transplantation. The objective of this study was to understand national changes to pediatric liver transplantation during COVID-19. METHODS: Using SRTR data, we compared waitlist additions, removals, and liver transplantations for pre-COVID-19 (March-November 2016-2019), early COVID-19 (March-May 2020), and late COVID-19 (June-November 2020). RESULTS: Waitlist additions decreased by 25% during early COVID-19 (41.3/month vs. 55.4/month, p < .001) with black candidates most affected (p = .04). Children spent longer on the waitlist during early COVID-19 compared to pre-COVID-19 (140 vs. 96 days, p < .001). There was a 38% decrease in liver transplantations during early COVID-19 (IRR 0.62, 95% CI 0.49-0.78), recovering to pre-pandemic rates during late COVID-19 (IRR 1.03, NS), and no change in percentage of living and deceased donors. White children had a 30% decrease in overall liver transplantation but no change in living donor liver transplantation (IRR 0.7, 95% CI 0.50-0.95; IRR 0.96, NS), while non-white children had a 44% decrease in overall liver transplantation (IRR 0.56, 95% CI 0.40-0.77) and 81% decrease in living donor liver transplantation (IRR 0.19, 95% CI 0.02-0.76). CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic decreased access to pediatric liver transplantation, particularly in its early stage. There were no regional differences in liver transplantation during COVID-19 despite the increased national sharing of organs. While pediatric liver transplantation has resumed pre-pandemic levels, ongoing racial disparities must be addressed.

The Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Cardiac Procedure Wait List Mortality in Ontario, Canada.

BACKGROUND: The novel SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic has dramatically altered the delivery of healthcare services, resulting in significant referral pattern changes, delayed presentations, and procedural delays. Our objective was to determine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in patients awaiting commonly performed cardiac procedures. METHODS: Clinical and administrative data sets were linked to identify all adults referred for: (1) percutaneous coronary intervention; (2) coronary artery bypass grafting; (3) valve surgery; and (4) transcatheter aortic valve implantation, from January 2014 to September 2020 in Ontario, Canada. Piece-wise regression models were used to determine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on referrals and procedural volume. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the effect of the pandemic on waitlist mortality for the 4 procedures. RESULTS: We included 584,341 patients who were first-time referrals for 1 of the 4 procedures, of whom 37,718 (6.4%) were referred during the pandemic. The pandemic period was associated with a significant decline in the number of referrals and procedures completed compared with the prepandemic period. Referral during the pandemic period was a significant predictor for increased all-cause mortality for the percutaneous coronary intervention (hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.47-2.27) and coronary artery bypass grafting (hazard ratio, 1.96; 95% confidence interval, 1.28-3.01), but not for surgical valve or transcatheter aortic valve implantation referrals. Procedural wait times were shorter during the pandemic period compared with the prepandemic period. CONCLUSIONS: There was a significant decrease in referrals and procedures completed for cardiac procedures during the pandemic period. Referral during the pandemic was associated with increased all-cause mortality while awaiting coronary revascularization.

Organ donation and transplantation: a multi-stakeholder call to action.

Although overall donation and transplantation activity is higher in Europe than on other continents, differences between European countries in almost every aspect of transplantation activity (for example, in the number of transplantations, the number of people with a functioning graft, in rates of living versus deceased donation, and in the use of expanded criteria donors) suggest that there is ample room for improvement. Herein we review the policy and clinical measures that should be considered to increase access to transplantation and improve post-transplantation outcomes. This Roadmap, generated by a group of major European stakeholders collaborating within a Thematic Network, presents an outline of the challenges to increasing transplantation rates and proposes 12 key areas along with specific measures that should be considered to promote transplantation. This framework can be adopted by countries and institutions that are interested in advancing transplantation, both within and outside the European Union. Within this framework, a priority ranking of initiatives is suggested that could serve as the basis for a new European Union Action Plan on Organ Donation and Transplantation.

A Single-Center Experience with Lung Transplants During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND This single-center study analyzed distinctions between lung transplants performed in the Department of Cardiac and Vascular surgery of the University Clinical Center in Gdansk, Poland before and during the COVID-19 pandemic. MATERIAL AND METHODS There were 189 patients who underwent the qualification procedure to lung transplantation in the Department of Cardiac and Vascular Surgery of the University Clinical Center in Gdansk, Poland in the years 2019 and 2020. The control group consisted of 12 patients transplanted in 2019, and the study group consisted of 16 patients transplanted in 2020. RESULTS During 2019, the qualification process was performed in 102 patients with pulmonary end-stage diseases. In 2020, despite the 3-month lockdown related to organizational changes in the hospital, 87 qualification processes were performed. The mortality rate of patients on the waiting list in 2020 was 14.3% (6 patients died), and during 2019 the rate was also 14.3% (4 patients died). Donor qualifications were according to ISHLT criteria. The distribution of donors in both years was similar. There was no relationship between the geographic area of residence and source of donors. In 2019, all 12 patients had double-lung transplant. In 2020, 11 patients had double-lung transplant and 5 patients had single-lung transplant. There was no difference in ventilation time and PGD aside from a shorter ICU stay in 2020. CONCLUSIONS Lung transplants were relatively well-conducted despite the continued obstacles of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Impact of diabetes in patients waiting for invasive cardiac procedures during COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: During COVID-19 pandemic, elective invasive cardiac procedures (ICP) have been frequently cancelled or postponed. Consequences may be more evident in patients with diabetes. OBJECTIVES: The objective was to identify the peculiarities of patients with DM among those in whom ICP were cancelled or postponed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as to identify subgroups in which the influence of DM has higher impact on the clinical outcome. METHODS: We included 2,158 patients in whom an elective ICP was cancelled or postponed during COVID-19 pandemic in 37 hospitals in Spain. Among them, 700 (32.4%) were diabetics. Patients with and without diabetes were compared. RESULTS: Patients with diabetes were older and had a higher prevalence of other cardiovascular risk factors, previous cardiovascular history and co-morbidities. Diabetics had a higher mortality (3.0% vs. 1.0%; p = 0.001) and cardiovascular mortality (1.9% vs. 0.4%; p = 0.001). Differences were especially important in patients with valvular heart disease (mortality 6.9% vs 1.7% [p < 0.001] and cardiovascular mortality 4.9% vs 0.9% [p = 0.002] in patients with and without diabetes, respectively). In the multivariable analysis, diabetes remained as an independent risk factor both for overall and cardiovascular mortality. No significant interaction was found with other clinical variables. CONCLUSION: Among patients in whom an elective invasive cardiac procedure is cancelled or postponed during COVID-19 pandemic, mortality and cardiovascular mortality is higher in patients with diabetes, irrespectively on other clinical conditions. These procedures should not be cancelled in patients with diabetes.

Geographic Differences in Lung Transplant Volume and Donor Availability During the COVID-19 Pandemic.

BACKGROUND: Regional variation in lung transplantation practices due to local coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) prevalence may cause geographic disparities in access to lung transplantation. METHODS: Using the United Network for Organ Sharing registry, we conducted a descriptive analysis of lung transplant volume, donor lung volume, new waitlist activations, and waiting list deaths at high-volume lung transplant centers during the first 3 months of the pandemic (March 1. 2020, to May 30, 2020) and we compared it to the same period in the preceding 5 years. RESULTS: Lung transplant volume decreased by 10% nationally and by a median of 50% in high COVID-19 prevalence centers (range -87% to 80%) compared with a median increase of 10% (range -87% to 80%) in low prevalence centers (P-for-trend 0.006). Donation services areas with high COVID-19 prevalence experienced a greater decrease in organ availability (-28% range, -72% to -11%) compared with low prevalence areas (+7%, range -20% to + 55%, P-for-trend 0.001). Waiting list activations decreased at 18 of 22 centers. Waiting list deaths were similar to the preceding 5 years and independent of local COVID-19 prevalence (P-for-trend 0.36). CONCLUSIONS: Regional variation in transplantation and donor availability in the early months of the pandemic varied by local COVID-19 activity.

SARS-CoV2/COVID-19 Infection in Transplant Recipients and in Patients on the Organ Transplant Waiting List in Colombia.

To assess our determination to continue transplant activity in Colombia during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, this study seeks to describe the risk of infection and mortality of transplanted patients vs those on the waiting list. Therefore, a descriptive study of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus type 2 (SARS-CoV-2)/COVID-19 infection in transplant recipients and patients on the waiting list was conducted. The data sources were the information systems of the Instituto Nacional de Salud of Colombia: National Donation and Transplant Information System, the National Public Health Surveillance System, and the National COVID-19 Data Repository. Characteristics of the patients who tested positive were analyzed, and the mortality rate was determined. An Real Time-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19 was performed in 7% of the transplant recipients included in this study, and 14.8% of those recipients tested positive. Among patients on the waiting list, 15.2% were tested, and 16.7% showed positive results. Overall, 1% (84/8108) of the transplant recipients and 2.5% (74/2926) of patients on the waiting list were infected with SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19. There were no differences in mortality between these groups (P = .8748). In conclusion, with the data obtained so far, the hospital availability, and the adoption of safety protocols in the institutions, our findings can support the continuity of the transplant activities in this country.

The impact of COVID-19 on kidney transplantation and the kidney transplant recipient - One year into the pandemic.

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly changed the landscape of kidney transplantation in the United States and worldwide. In addition to adversely impacting allograft and patient survival in postkidney transplant recipients, the current pandemic has affected all aspects of transplant care, including transplant referrals and listing, organ donation rates, organ procurement and shipping, and waitlist mortality. Critical decisions were made during this period by transplant centers and individual transplant physicians taking into consideration patient safety and resource utilization. As countries have begun administering the COVID vaccines, new and important considerations pertinent to our transplant population have arisen. This comprehensive review focuses on the impact of COVID-19 on kidney transplantation rates, mortality, policy decisions, and the clinical management of transplanted patients infected with COVID-19.

SARS-CoV-2 in Kidney Transplant and Waitlisted Patients During the First Peak: The Welsh Experience.

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) global pandemic has led to many health care services, including transplantation, being temporarily suspended. For transplantation to safely recommence, there is a need to understand the effects of SARS-CoV-2 in transplant and waitlist patients. We identified 21 patients with proven SARS-CoV-2 infection (13 transplant; 8 waitlist) during the first peak of coronavirus disease 2019 in Wales. Median patient age was 57 years (range, 24-69), 62% were male, and all were white. Median body mass index was 29 kg/m2 (range, 22-42), and 81% had 1 or more significant comorbidities. Median time from transplant to SARS-CoV-2 infection was 135 months (range, 9-356) and median time since being listed was 17.5 months (range, 5-69) for waitlisted patients. Seventeen patients were admitted to the hospital (81%), 18% (n = 3) in intensive care unit, and 5 patients died (4 transplant recipients and 1 waitlist patient; 24%). Two of the 4 transplant patients who died had recent malignancy. Although the mortality of hospitalized transplant patients was high, their infection rate of 0.87% meant that the overall mortality of transplant patients due to SARS-CoV-2 was low and comparable to that of patients on the waitlist. These data provide confidence in restarting the transplant program, provided that a series of measures aiming to avoid infections in newly transplanted patients are taken.

IMPact of the COVID-19 epidemic on the moRTAlity of kidney transplant recipients and candidates in a French Nationwide registry sTudy (IMPORTANT).

End stage kidney disease increase the risk of COVID-19 related death but how the kidney replacement strategy should be adapted during the pandemic is unknown. Chronic hemodialysis makes social distancing difficult to achieve. Alternatively, kidney transplantation could increase the severity of COVID-19 due to therapeutic immunosuppression and contribute to saturation of intensive care units. For these reasons, kidney transplantation was suspended in France during the first epidemic wave. Here, we retrospectively evaluated this strategy by comparing the overall and COVID-19 related mortality in kidney transplant recipients and candidates over the last three years. Cross-interrogation of two national registries for the period 1 March and 1 June 2020, identified 275 deaths among the 42812 kidney transplant recipients and 144 deaths among the 16210 candidates. This represents an excess of deaths for both populations, as compared with the same period the two previous years (mean of two previous years: 253 in recipients and 112 in candidates). This difference was integrally explained by COVID-19, which accounted for 44% (122) and 42% (60) of the deaths in recipients and candidates, respectively. Taking into account the size of the two populations and the geographical heterogeneity of virus circulation, we found that the excess of risk of death due to COVID-19 was similar for recipients and candidates in high viral risk area but four-fold higher for candidates in the low viral risk area. Thus, in case of a second epidemic wave, kidney transplantation should be suspended in high viral risk areas but maintained outside those areas, both to reduce the excess of deaths of candidates and avoid wasting precious resources.

COVID-19-related mortality in kidney transplant and dialysis patients: results of the ERACODA collaboration.

BACKGROUND: Patients on kidney replacement therapy comprise a vulnerable population and may be at increased risk of death from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Currently, only limited data are available on outcomes in this patient population. METHODS: We set up the ERACODA (European Renal Association COVID-19 Database) database, which is specifically designed to prospectively collect detailed data on kidney transplant and dialysis patients with COVID-19. For this analysis, patients were included who presented between 1 February and 1 May 2020 and had complete information available on the primary outcome parameter, 28-day mortality. RESULTS: Of the 1073 patients enrolled, 305 (28%) were kidney transplant and 768 (72%) dialysis patients with a mean age of 60 ± 13 and 67 ± 14 years, respectively. The 28-day probability of death was 21.3% [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 14.3-30.2%] in kidney transplant and 25.0% (95% CI 20.2-30.0%) in dialysis patients. Mortality was primarily associated with advanced age in kidney transplant patients, and with age and frailty in dialysis patients. After adjusting for sex, age and frailty, in-hospital mortality did not significantly differ between transplant and dialysis patients [hazard ratio (HR) 0.81, 95% CI 0.59-1.10, P = 0.18]. In the subset of dialysis patients who were a candidate for transplantation (n = 148), 8 patients died within 28 days, as compared with 7 deaths in 23 patients who underwent a kidney transplantation <1 year before presentation (HR adjusted for sex, age and frailty 0.20, 95% CI 0.07-0.56, P < 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: The 28-day case-fatality rate is high in patients on kidney replacement therapy with COVID-19 and is primarily driven by the risk factors age and frailty. Furthermore, in the first year after kidney transplantation, patients may be at increased risk of COVID-19-related mortality as compared with dialysis patients on the waiting list for transplantation. This information is important in guiding clinical decision-making, and for informing the public and healthcare authorities on the COVID-19-related mortality risk in kidney transplant and dialysis patients.

Effects of COVID-19 pandemic on pediatric kidney transplant in the United States.

BACKGROUND: In March 2020, COVID-19 infections began to rise exponentially in the USA, placing substantial burden on the healthcare system. As a result, there was a rapid change in transplant practices and policies, with cessation of most procedures. Our goal was to understand changes to pediatric kidney transplantation (KT) at the national level during the COVID-19 epidemic. METHODS: Using SRTR data, we examined changes in pediatric waitlist registration, waitlist removal or inactivation, and deceased donor and living donor (DDKT/LDKT) events during the start of the disease transmission in the USA compared with the same time the previous year. RESULTS: We saw an initial decrease in DDKT and LDKT by 47% and 82% compared with expected events and then a continual increase, with numbers reaching expected prepandemic levels by May 2020. In the early phase of the pandemic, waitlist inactivation and removals due to death or deteriorating condition rose above expected values by 152% and 189%, respectively. There was a statistically significant decrease in new waitlist additions (IRR 0.49 0.65 0.85) and LDKT (IRR 0.17 0.38 0.84) in states with high vs. low COVID activity. Transplant recipients during the pandemic were more likely to have received a DDKT, but had similar calculated panel-reactive antibody (cPRA) values, waitlist time, and cause of kidney failure as before the pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: The COVID-19 pandemic initially reduced access to kidney transplantation among pediatric patients in the USA but has not had a sustained effect.

SARS-CoV-2 infection and early mortality of waitlisted and solid organ transplant recipients in England: A national cohort study.

Patients waitlisted for and recipients of solid organ transplants (SOT) are perceived to have a higher risk of contracting severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and death; however, definitive epidemiological evidence is lacking. In a comprehensive national cohort study enabled by linkage of the UK transplant registry and Public Health England and NHS Digital Tracing services, we examined the incidence of laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and subsequent mortality in patients on the active waiting list for a deceased donor SOT and recipients with a functioning SOT as of February 1, 2020 with follow-up to May 20, 2020. Univariate and multivariable techniques were used to compare differences between groups and to control for case-mix. One hundred ninety-seven (3.8%) of the 5184 waitlisted patients and 597 (1.3%) of the 46 789 SOT recipients tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Mortality after testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 was 10.2% (20/197) for waitlisted patients and 25.8% (154/597) for SOT recipients. Increasing recipient age was the only variable independently associated with death after positive SARS-CoV-2 test. Of the 1004 transplants performed in 2020, 41 (4.1%) recipients have tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 with 8 (0.8%) deaths reported by May 20. These data provide evidence to support decisions on the risks and benefits of SOT during the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic.

Impact of COVID-19 on Lung Transplant Activity in Germany-A Cross-Sectional Survey.

The current COVID-19 pandemia affects health care systems worldwide, however, to a variable extent depending on the caseload in each country. We aimed to provide a cross-sectional overview of current limitations or adaptions in lung transplant programs in Germany in from January to May 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemia caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2. A cross-sectional survey assessing various aspects of lung transplant activity was sent to all active lung transplant programs (n = 12) in Germany. Eight centers (66%) responded to the survey within the requested time frame. Four centers (50%) reported their activity is not restricted at all and four centers (50%) reported on moderate general limitations. The overall lung transplant activity in Germany from January to May 2020 contains 128 bilateral and 11 single lung transplantations, which is similar to the same period in the year 2019 (126 bilateral transplantations and 12 single lung transplantations). The results suggest that the influence of the COVID-19 pandemia on lung transplantation activity in Germany has been moderate so far. Nevertheless, adaptions such as extensive testing of donors and recipients were introduced to reduce the likelihood of infections and increase patient safety. Alertness to changes in COVID-19 reproduction rates might be required until effective antiviral therapy or vaccination is available.

An international multicenter study of protocols for liver transplantation during a pandemic: A case for quadripartite equipoise.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The outbreak of COVID-19 has vastly increased the operational burden on healthcare systems worldwide. For patients with end-stage liver failure, liver transplantation is the only option. However, the strain on intensive care facilities caused by the pandemic is a major concern. There is an urgent need for ethical frameworks to balance the need for liver transplantation against the availability of national resources. METHODS: We performed an international multicenter study of transplant centers to understand the evolution of policies for transplant prioritization in response to the pandemic in March 2020. To describe the ethical tension arising in this setting, we propose a novel ethical framework, the quadripartite equipoise (QE) score, that is applicable to liver transplantation in the context of limited national resources. RESULTS: Seventeen large- and medium-sized liver transplant centers from 12 countries across 4 continents participated. Ten centers opted to limit transplant activity in response to the pandemic, favoring a "sickest-first" approach. Conversely, some larger centers opted to continue routine transplant activity in order to balance waiting list mortality. To model these and other ethical tensions, we computed a QE score using 4 factors - recipient outcome, donor/graft safety, waiting list mortality and healthcare resources - for 7 countries. The fluctuation of the QE score over time accurately reflects the dynamic changes in the ethical tensions surrounding transplant activity in a pandemic. CONCLUSIONS: This four-dimensional model of quadripartite equipoise addresses the ethical tensions in the current pandemic. It serves as a universally applicable framework to guide regulation of transplant activity in response to the increasing burden on healthcare systems. LAY SUMMARY: There is an urgent need for ethical frameworks to balance the need for liver transplantation against the availability of national resources during the COVID-19 pandemic. We describe a four-dimensional model of quadripartite equipoise that models these ethical tensions and can guide the regulation of transplant activity in response to the increasing burden on healthcare systems.

Solid Organ Transplantation in the Coronavirus Disease 2019 Era: "The Great Bet" in the North Italy Transplant Program Area.

INTRODUCTION: Solid organ transplantation is challenging for waitlist patients during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. AIM: This study investigates COVID-19 incidence and mortality in patients transplanted in the North Italy Transplant program (NITp) during the outbreak. MATERIALS AND METHODS: All consecutive patients transplanted from February 20 to April 3, 2020 (6 weeks), were included in our cohort and were observed for at least 4 weeks. Survival analyses were performed. RESULTS: In this study, 124 patients were transplanted with 12 (9.7%) hearts, 4 (3.2%) lungs, 39 (31.4%) livers, 67 (54%) kidneys, and 2 (1.6%) combined kidney-pancreas. Recipients' mean age was 51 years (standard deviation [SD] ± 16.6), and 76 of 124 (61%) were men. Five (4%) patients developed COVID-19 after a mean of 13 days (SD ± 6.7), with a cumulative incidence of 4.0% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.5-7.5). During the follow-up period, 5 of 124 (4%) recipients died; overall mortality was 4.3% (95% CI, 0.6-8.0), with only 1 patient dying of COVID-19, for a COVID-19-related mortality of 0.8% (95% CI, 0-6.0). CONCLUSIONS: This study showed a low COVID-19 incidence and COVID-19-related mortality in patients transplanted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Further studies with a longer follow-up period are mandatory to confirm the safety of transplant procedures.

Effect of COVID-19 on liver transplantation in Korea.

COVID-19 is now a pandemic with increasing numbers of cases and deaths. In addition to the economic and social damage caused by COVID-19 outbreak prolongation, damage caused by delayed treatment of other diseases such as severe cirrhosis is also serious. We aimed to describe the effect of COVID-19 on the number of liver transplants (LT) in South Korea. The number of LT performed in Korea during the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) outbreak, and the COVID-19 pandemic was compared with the average number of LT performed in the past 5 years. There were 108.5 cases of LT performed per month during the MERS outbreak. It was 11% lower than the average of 122.8 cases per month for the last 5 years. LDLT and DDLT decreased by 13% to 75.3 cases and by 7.5% to 33.2 cases per month during the MERS epidemic, respectively. From January to March 2020 (COVID-19 outbreak), the number of LT did not decrease significantly. The lockdown caused by COVID-19 did not affect the number of liver transplants in Korea. Establishing a safe process and procedure of liver transplantation within safe boundaries can be beneficial in reducing the side effects of lockdown and saving patients' lives.

Identifying scenarios of benefit or harm from kidney transplantation during the COVID-19 pandemic: A stochastic simulation and machine learning study.

Clinical decision-making in kidney transplant (KT) during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is understandably a conundrum: both candidates and recipients may face increased acquisition risks and case fatality rates (CFRs). Given our poor understanding of these risks, many centers have paused or reduced KT activity, yet data to inform such decisions are lacking. To quantify the benefit/harm of KT in this context, we conducted a simulation study of immediate-KT vs delay-until-after-pandemic for different patient phenotypes under a variety of potential COVID-19 scenarios. A calculator was implemented (http://www.transplantmodels.com/covid_sim), and machine learning approaches were used to evaluate the important aspects of our modeling. Characteristics of the pandemic (acquisition risk, CFR) and length of delay (length of pandemic, waitlist priority when modeling deceased donor KT) had greatest influence on benefit/harm. In most scenarios of COVID-19 dynamics and patient characteristics, immediate KT provided survival benefit; KT only began showing evidence of harm in scenarios where CFRs were substantially higher for KT recipients (eg, ≥50% fatality) than for waitlist registrants. Our simulations suggest that KT could be beneficial in many centers if local resources allow, and our calculator can help identify patients who would benefit most. Furthermore, as the pandemic evolves, our calculator can update these predictions.